A considerable spike in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Victoria has brought a retraction of lockdown restrictions easing, amid serious concerns a second wave of infections is possible.
The Victorian Premier yesterday announced a state of emergency will remain in place for the next month, with some restrictions reimposed and compliance set to be enforced by police.
The next stage of easing was scheduled to come into effect from today (22 June), with pubs and other public venues gearing up to welcome 50 patrons – increased from the limit of 20.
This move has now been pushed back until at least mid-July, and other guidelines are returning; household gatherings are restricted to five guests, and public gatherings are limited to 10 people. Some new venue types will still reopen, such as gyms, cinemas, concert venues and indoor sports, although with the same 20-customer limit.
In the past five days Victoria has reported 96 new coronavirus cases, bringing the biggest increase in more than a month.
Health Minister Jenny Mikakos is discouraging travel to or from six Victorian LGAs known to be hotspots: Hume, Casey, Brimbank, Moreland, Cardinia and Darebin.
The Stamford Plaza Hotel, which has been housing quarantined returned international travellers, has recorded a total cluster of 13 diagnoses, including three linked to an outbreak among security contractors.
But a lot of the new cases do not involve returned travellers, with many coming from person to person transmission outside of quarantine.
Community transmission is the reason authorities have responded so swiftly and aggressively. Premier Daniel Andrews reported known instances of large family outbreaks, and was critical of people who knew they were infected yet went to work or social gatherings anyway.
“Some families who have not done as they have been asked,” he said.
The total number of confirmed cases in Australian surpassed 7,400 on Friday, while the death toll remains very low by international standards, at 102.
Just last week Victorian operators were hoping to have the rule requiring four square metres per person halved to only two square metres, suggesting this was needed to keep them financially viable.
But on the eve of venues with sufficient floor space ready to take 50 people they are being forced to gear down again. Hot spots for community transmission may even see restrictions increased and a return to stay-at-home orders.
When compared with the USA, which just recorded its biggest jump in new cases in six weeks, as total cases rocket past 2.3 million and more than 122,000 deaths have been recorded, the numbers in Victoria do not appear very serious.
However, the rate of increase is the real concern, potentially beginning an exponential number of new infections. Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said the State is at a “crossroads”.
He says he will raise the issue of masks when speaking with the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee (AHPPC) and is open to the idea of enforcing people wearing masks in public if that is determined to be the right move.
Masks can give wearers a false sense of security and offer little protection to the wearer; their purpose in reducing transmission is to reduce the emission of micro-droplets by a wearer who is infected (potentially without knowing they are positive). The World Health Organisation (WHO) is currently only recommending the wearing of masks when physical distancing cannot not be achieved, or in areas of high community transmission.
Melbourne publicans have spoken of the preparation for the planned relaxed measures expected today, receiving increased orders from suppliers and reinstating the necessary staff. There are reports revenue is still down by two-thirds, and pubs in the CBD remain particularly hard-hit with many office workers still absent.
The Australian Hotels Association (Vic) has spoken out against the members of the community that have flaunted containment measures and brought a backward step for the State and hospitality, both business owners and employees.
The AHA suggests the instigation of new safety and cleaning systems has shown operators can be relied upon to be part of the solution, and that at least regional pubs not in hot spots should be given more latitude.