Countries around the world, including Australia, are looking to easing of pandemic restrictions, but the quick return of lockdowns in many regions must serve as a warning to not leap prematurely.
Last week South Korea – largely seen as the posterchild for a successful campaign addressing the COVID-19 crisis – officially loosened social distancing guidelines, and businesses still closed were allowed to reopen. People in groups, limited to 12, were still required to wear masks, and to keep some distance from each other.
This week South Korean authorities are trawling through mobile phone data, credit card transactions and CCTV footage, after one man that has since tested positive attended multiple nightclubs in an entertainment precinct. So far more than 7,300 people have been tracked and tested, but not all those potentially exposed have yet been identified.
Several thousand businesses in the vicinity of the epicentre have been closed down again.
The country had experienced weeks of single-digit and several days with no new cases, but the weekend’s cluster has brought at least 102 confirmed new infections, linked to the nightclubs.
This latest outbreak brings fears of a second surge, which Kim Woo-joo, a professor in infectious diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital says “will be inevitable” when colder weather begins again in Autumn. The country has recorded comparable numbers to Australia, with 10,936 overall cases but 258 deaths (versus Australia’s 6,980 cases and just 98 deaths).
“Korea should be very cautious to avoid a recurrence of an outbreak,” he told Foreign Policy.
“It’ll be a step-by-step approach, and the government should assess every situation and the risk of resurgence, deciding to go or not to go or sometimes going back to major social distancing.”
South Korean President Moon Jae-in lamented it is going to be a “prolonged” fight.
South Korea joins Lebanon, which on Tuesday similarly reimposed restrictions – just two weeks after easing them, believing the spread had been contained.
Wuhan – the Chinese city where the virus was first detected – had seemingly rid itself of the disease five weeks ago, and many conditions have been eased. This week a cluster of new infections emerged, and authorities have ordered further testing of 11 million residents.
Chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wu Zunyou, told state media they believe the virus can flare up in patients up to 50 days after they have apparently recovered.
Meanwhile, the USA, India and Russia have begun easing restrictions this week, even as their new case numbers continue to soar, reporting 21,700 (USA), 3,500 (India), and 10,900 (Russia) new cases yesterday alone.
The likelihood of a resurgence has widely been predicted by experts, and as countries further down the road experience the spectre of shutting economies again we are reminded of the sobering challenges ahead.
Australia is entering the cold weather period that has seen the northern hemisphere suffer the full assault of the cold-loving virus, and appropriate prudence now might prevent the boomerang of our restrictions as businesses look toward the summer and Christmas seasons.
The dilemma is poignantly satirised by Carlos Greaves of McSweeneys in his recent article about the merits of reopening the storm-damaged Jurassic Park to the public, despite the fact that deadly velociraptors are yet to be recaptured and unlikely to be contained anytime soon.
